lundi 28 juillet 2014

The Siege Report 07/28/14 *Post-Nova Era Begins, 3 Bold Predictions*

End of an Era: Nova to Leave for Innova




Attrition and perhaps boredom over time, end of an era for L2West





If we are to take Martel's comments at face value, whatever is left of Nova on Naia will be packing their bags and headed over to the EU Innova servers. I only started playing this game when GoD came out but even I know that outside a year of rebuilding after GoD first came out, Nova continued an impressive streak of dominance (well maybe not so impressive considering the man-hours and resources poured in, but that dedication is still impressive if also ridiculous). Consider the collapse of Gauri within a year and the amount of real money and man-hours poured into that clan, and that makes Nova's run all the more impressive.



Many questions remain. What becomes of SH and the leftovers of the old "Geno?" Will they transfer off Naia? What happens to Naia? Heck, what happens to the rest of the servers? There is no way Magmeld/Shillen/Bartz should exist independently as is due to their terminal server population decline. What happens on Chronos? What happens if FS and Enmity hit a lull period of inactivity; who is left to play?



In this report, I will make 3 bold predictions as we begin Gaming After Nova:





1. Lets start with the obvious: Shillen/Bartz/Magmeld will merge. BUT, IMO they will not merge into a new third server, but instead be divided with Chronos/Naia




Merge crap with crap and one gets????





At face value, Nova leaving Naia doesn't affect the need to merge Shillen/Bartz/Magmeld (the consensus is these servers are dead). However, the vacuum that is about to open in Naia could prove the final straw for NcWest, especially if SH/Geno/whatever is left on Naia decides to transfer to Chronos. Four dead servers just doesn't make sense from a logistical and business viewpoint. This leads to point 2...







2. SH/Geno/even DH will transfer to Chronos






Anyone who knows how Nova operates knows that DH probably got gutted as the junior partner in the ally. Of course, SH and Geno got gutted too over the course of fighting on Naia, and rather unsurprisingly Geno also got roiled with huge internal drama.



So what will SH/Geno do? Will they be content to sit on Naia and hope for peace and an uncontested server? Some part of me (and I think many others too) wants to see CJ and Andouille on the same server though:




CJ and Andouille: Dumb and Dumber













Good Chance Russian SA-11 Shot Down Malaysian Airliner, but so what?



Pretty sure insurgents couldn't get their hands on one of these and more importantly, learn how to operate it without some outside help







Conservatives are bashing the Obama administration. People are throwing around "1938" and "appeasement." But, lets step back a moment and focus our attention on why the EU also doesn't really want to poke the Russian bear.



Money, trade, money. Germany, who arguably holds the pants in its relationship with the rest of the EU, does a lot of trade with Russia. In fact, Russia is Germany's third largest trading partner. Even the Dutch do a lot of business with Mother Russia: A prominent Dutch businessman praised the Dutch government for its "even-keeled" reaction (read: doing nothing) to the downing of MH-17, which left a lot of Dutch passengers dead.



Granted, the Netherlands can't do jack squat to Putin, but still with European reluctance to take a harder stance on Russia, how much is the U.S. really willing to take on? And the EU just exited the PIIGS crisis, they can't afford to bleed more money by taking on Russia (Merkel's back is probably broken already trying to carry Greece as is).



This is rather ironic in light of the Polish Waitergate scandal where their foreign minister voiced his frustrations at the U.S., calling the U.S. a "worthless ally" after the Poles, in his own words, gave the U.S. a BJ.







And finally, prediction number 3, and I'm really going on a limb here...





3. Lineage 2 Will Finally Close Down for Good Within One Year from Now



I don't think we will see a group of dedicated real-money investors in NcWest ever again after Nova. Nova poured a lot of real life money into this game, which had a ripple effect wherever they went (does anyone think Geno would have spent as much as they have if they didn't compete against the likes of Nova?). At the end of the day, money talks, but also I just don't see how Chronos can carry this game either.



The FS Zerg is largely relegated to siege-only duty as is. Enmity has largely gathered up the remainder of skilled players thanks to sticking to some modicum of selective recruiting (read: No "Taking all 97+" recruiting ads).



But I see the Euro zerg gradually thinning out due to boredom and lack of attention (there is no way in hell Ari3s can keep everyone in that pile happy), and there will be malcontents. I don't see Enmity zerg recruiting to sustain numbers over the long haul, and regardless zerg recruiting is only a temporary solution (HEY SUNSHINE, YOUR PURE PVE SCHTICK IS KILLING THE GAME?!!?!?)



Anyways, speaking of malcontents, I believe there will be laterals from FS in the near future... I'm sure some current FS member see that there has been the good ole' bait-and-switch (E.g., recruiting promise: Skilled players only, Reality: Recruiting all 97+).









Start the final countdown,



~Auteur~





Arsene Wenger, good job YOU FINALLY SIGNED A LEGITIMATE SECOND STRIKER in Alexis Sanchez after what, 10 years of 4th place???






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